The Bayesian Change Point and Variable Selection Algorithm: Application to the δO Proxy Record of the Plio- Pleistocene
نویسندگان
چکیده
Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the “Content”) contained in the publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content.
منابع مشابه
A Bayesian approach to detecting change points in climatic records
Given distinct climatic periods in the various facets of the Earth’s climate system, many attempts have been made to determine the exact timing of ‘change points’ or regime boundaries. However, identification of change points is not always a simple task. A time series containing N data points has approximately N distinct placements of k change points, rendering brute force enumeration futile as...
متن کاملBayesian change point estimation in Poisson-based control charts
Precise identification of the time when a process has changed enables process engineers to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for a Poisson process in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step < /div> change, a linear trend and a known multip...
متن کاملAn early Pleistocene Mg/Ca-δ18O record from the Gulf of Mexico: Evaluating ice sheet size and pacing in the 41-kyr world
Early Pleistocene glacial cycles in marine δO exhibit strong obliquity pacing, but there is a perplexing lack of precession variability despite its important influence on summer insolation intensity – the presumed forcing of ice sheet growth and decay according to the Milankovitch hypothesis. This puzzle has been explained in two ways: Northern Hemisphere ice sheets instead respond to insolatio...
متن کاملDynamic Frailty and Change Point Models for Recurrent Events Data
Abstract. We present a Bayesian analysis for recurrent events data using a nonhomogeneous mixed Poisson point process with a dynamic subject-specific frailty function and a dynamic baseline intensity func- tion. The dynamic subject-specific frailty employs a dynamic piecewise constant function with a known pre-specified grid and the baseline in- tensity uses an unknown grid for the piecewise ...
متن کاملChange point method for detecting regime shifts in paleoclimatic time series: Application to dO time series of the Plio-Pleistocene
[1] Although different paleoenvironmental time series resolve past climatic change at different time scales, nearly all share one characteristic: they are nonstationary over the length of the record sampled. We describe a recursive dynamic programming change point algorithm that is well suited to identify shifts in the Earth system’s variability, as it represents a nonstationary time series as ...
متن کامل